Ludovic Harter: Transformation scenarios and future trajectories of European regional agri-food systems.

Summary of the mission

A two-month outbound mobility placement at the Polytechnic University of Madrid, as part of Ludovic Harter’s PhD thesis, will enable him to collaborate with the research team led by Eduardo Aguilera, principal investigator of the ERC WHEP project. This placement will be dedicated to developing forward-looking scenarios for the European agri-food system at a territorial level. The work will draw on the GRAFS model, to which Eduardo Aguilera has contributed and which has been further developed in the first two chapters of Ludovic Harter’s thesis. The GRAFS (Generalised Representation of Agri-Food Systems) model provides a robust framework for describing the metabolic flows of nitrogen, phosphorus and carbon within agri-food systems. By incorporating, in particular, an empirical relationship between aggregate yields and nitrogen fertilisation at the crop rotation level, GRAFS enables the projection of agricultural yields based on different levels of nitrogen inputs, within a given soil-climate and socio-technical context. This project will aim to explore the space of possible futures by constructing scenarios that combine biophysical projections and socio-political narratives, with the aim of identifying the drivers of transformation and the structural barriers within these systems.